Online Learning

# Samplevolatility

5. IMPLIED VOLATILITY XEO Calls E Model Actual Lower/ Raise Ꝺ ITM CALL XEO 1145 42.95752053 37.25 Lower 16.03% ATM CALL XEO 1170 24.11158 19.8 Lower 14.09% OTM CALL XEO 1245 5.808925074 0.55 Lower 11.58% XEO PUT E Model Actual Lower/Raise Ꝺ ITM PUT XEO 1245 79.1626283 75.20 Lower 14.89% ATM PUT XEO 1170 22.4982 19.55 Lower 15.10% OTM PUT XEO 1145 16.35510301 11.90 Lower 17.0812% 15 OEX Calls E Model Actual Lower/ Raise Ꝺ (%) OEX ITM CALL 1145 42.47860321 38.00 Lower 17.10% OEX ATM CALL 1170 28.508307 20.5 Lower 14.90% OEX OTM CALL 1245 5.741794078 0.60 Lower 11.86% OEX PUT E Model Actual Lower/Raise Ꝺ ITM OEX PUT 1245 79.85495443 78.20 Lower 18.62% ATM OEX PUT 1170 27.654376 21.05 Lower 15.94% OTM OEX PUT 1145 16.6356427 13.05 Lower 17.8355% Black and Scholes Model, defines volatility as the “standard deviation of the continuously compounded return on an underlying asset”. Volatility may be estimated using two approaches: historical volatility and implied volatility. The former assumes that volatility prevailing over recent past holds true in the future. In accordance to implied volatility, the price of a option is a reflection of the current volatility of the underlying asset. The implied volatility is “the “volatility that makes the theoretical value of the option equal to the actual value of the option”” (Chance and Brooks, 2013).The implied volatility is calculated using a trial and error approach, however Excel’s Goal Seek method, allows easy computation of accurate volatility.As shown above, the implied volatility amongst all the options are lower than the VXO value. It is inferred that options with high implied volatility are costlier as against options with lower implied volatility. Differences, in these volatilities may be viewed as differences in the relative cost of the options (Chance and Brooks, 2013).Volatility is a representation of volatilities of underlying assets across option expirations. Thus, it is plausible, that across varying time periods, volatility could be different. Usually,” longer the time to maturity of an option, the higher the volatility, however this may not always hold true” (Chance and Brooks, 2013).5.1.Implied Volatility amongst options and VXOIn both American (OEX) options and European (XEO) options, the implied volatility is seen to be lower than the VXO, which indicates that these options are undervalued. The implied volatility, as discussed in the previous section, offers investors insight into an options cost. The general rule being, options with higher implied volatility are more expensive. Thus, there proves to be an opportunity for arbitrage; by buying at a lower price and selling them at higher prices.16In the American (OEX) put option we can see that ITM and OTM options have the highest implied volatility in comparison to the lower implied volatility of the ATM option. This is because these options (ITM and OTM) represent higher risk of large movements on the underlying asset and are thus are more expensive.5.2.Smiles”For a specified exercise price, the relationship between implied volatility and option expiration is recognised as structure of volatility (Don and Robert)”. The implied volatility smile is the correlation between implied volatility and the exercise price for a given option. Due to the 1989 market crash the implied volatility surface has become more skewed. Risk variables like Delta and Gamma can be approximated using the non-flat implied volatility surface (Don and Robert).XEO CALL 17.00% Volatility(%) 16.00% 15.00% 14.00% Implied 13.00% 12.00% 11.00% 10.00% 1100 1150 1200 1250 Excercise Price Implied Volatility XEO PUT17.50%17.00%16.50%16.00%15.50%15.00%14.50%1100 1150 1200 1250Excercise PriceOEX CALL Implied Volatility 18.00%17.00%16.00%15.00%14.00%13.00%12.00%11.00%10.00%1100  1150   1200   1250Excercise PriceThe above graphs represent a reverse skew or otherwise known as a volatility smirk; the lower the strike price higher the implied volatility. Investors in such a scenario heavily trade on ITM call options and OTM put options. It occurs when investors are concerned about the market’ i.e.’ they are expecting a crash in the market. When such a scenario is anticipated, investors are often pressured to buy OTM puts to hedge their investment portfolios (Bamford, 2014).17OEX PUT Implied Volatility 19.00%18.50%18.00%17.50%17.00%16.50%16.00%15.50%1140   1160   1180   1200   1220   1240   1260Excercise PriceIn the above graph, implied volatility is clearly higher in ITM and OTM options but is lower at the ATM option. This implies there is a higher demand for ITM and OTM options. Investors tend to buy ITM options as these have a higher intrinsic value, whereas OTM options similarly have higher extrinsic values than ATM options. Speculative markets often see the presence of volatility smiles. Upon occurrence of large volatility shifts, investors buy ITM options to steady gains whereas they buy OTM options for speculative reasons (Bamford, 2014).1823

Samplevolatility